Sunday, January 10, 2010

The Asian Century

Already sounds like a cliche. But it appears that the Atlantic Era is fading out...Europe..to paraphrase an earlier adage..is now the sick man of...errrr Europe?! The dominance of the West is increasingly fraught and tenuous in all arenas. The US may retain influence and power because of its unique geographical situation stradling the two great world oceans. The North Atlantic hegemony is receding like an ageing Lothario's hairline. With an increasingly uncertain and demilitarizing Western Europe crippled by self-doubt and inflexible sclerotic economies, America is increasingly looking to the Pacific and to the growing confident China. The only issue is can the debt strapped US itself- seemingly more uncertain than in the past; can the US maintain a prime role in world affairs? Or will it fade to a kind of status akin to Everton in the English Premier League: Mid Table Mediocrity (MTM). Memories of the great triumphs of the past...faded photos of past glories...a sense of entitlement which is progressively more underpinned by nostalgia than by real power.
China and India continue to grow economically. What is more critical is the growth in confidence and ambition these two developing giants manifest. Their GDPs are matched by their self confidence indexes.
The moralizing tone of the West is sounding even more infuriatingly self-serving and hypocritical thanks to the outrageous cynicism of neo-con policies and invasions, prison abuse, rendition, Gitmo..etc etc..The shadow of racism and social tensions seem set to knock the European social model off track. Cultural conflict and contests seem set to further unravel the cohesion of many countries. Witness the recent minaret "debate" in Switzerland. Of course, other nations face challenges not least those of the degrading natural environment, lack of resources and various social stresses. However, it the West's loss of confidence, certainty and leadership in the moral, economic and political fields that is the critical variable reinforcing the shift to Asia.

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